A no-nonsense, strategic approach to Iran

The article argues that traditional deterrence strategies are ineffective against Iran's current leadership due to their radical Islamist ideology. Following threats from Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who pledged to "avenge your pure blood and the blood of all the martyrs… by taking revenge against the criminal, disgraceful murderers," and intelligence warnings of assassination plots against U.S. President Donald Trump, Trump issued strong warnings, stating, "I’ve left instructions, if anything happens, to just literally bomb them at levels that they’ve never seen before."

This approach, however, assumes that Iranian decision-makers rationally weigh benefits against costs, an assumption challenged by the worldview of groups like Hamas. A document from Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, seized by the IDF, showed he anticipated overwhelming Israeli retaliation, possibly even nuclear, yet proceeded with the October 7 attack, viewing it as a "battle of life or death."

The article concludes that against such enemies, security cannot rely on deterrence but must focus on prevention and the denial of capabilities, including nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, advanced drones, and naval forces, to Iran's revolutionary leadership.