Berlin attack highlights Europe’s shift to individualized, multi-layered terror threats – analysis

The July 2024 Berlin attack, where a man drove a van into a Pride celebration, killing one and injuring 29, highlights Europe's evolving terror threat. The 21-year-old suspect, Abdul Ballout, who was killed by police, had pledged allegiance to ISIS in a video. This incident exemplifies a shift towards individualized, ISIS-inspired violence, often radicalized online and executed with accessible weapons, rather than centrally coordinated attacks.

"What we are observing in Europe is not so much a return to jihadist terrorism in the form we experienced between 2014 and 2017, but rather its transformation,"

said Daniele Garofalo, an expert on jihadism. Europol's 2026 report indicates that most jihadist attacks and plots involve lone actors or small cells, with radicalization and preparation often occurring online. The Berlin case also exposed the challenges in assessing online extremist activity, as Ballout had a prior conviction for ISIS propaganda but received a suspended sentence, raising questions about the evidentiary weight given to such digital indicators.