Beyond the battlefield: Why Iran is entering the final stage of strategic attrition – opinion

The United States has reportedly shifted its strategy against Iran, moving beyond degrading military capabilities to disrupting the regime's ability to govern, sustain logistics, and finance its war efforts. This is evidenced by targeting infrastructure like bridges, ports, and electrical networks, indicating a focus on increasing long-term strategic costs and reducing Iran's capacity to regenerate military power. Iran, in response, is widening the battlefield through threats to regional partners and shipping routes, potentially reflecting a narrowing of its viable options. The article highlights Kharg Island and Gulf energy routes as critical, noting that sustained disruption could escalate the conflict into a global energy crisis. While external military pressure alone is unlikely to cause regime collapse, the convergence of military and economic pressure with civil unrest and elite fragmentation could lead to systemic failure. The regime may intensify repression and seek diplomatic arrangements to buy time, but the long-term trajectory suggests an eventual collapse when the state loses its capacity to govern effectively.