Could Iran’s regime collapse? Inside the Israeli assessment of Tehran’s future – analysis

Israeli intelligence assesses that the Iranian regime is on a path of internal deterioration, potentially leading to its collapse, despite its continued aggression. This assessment follows a period of intense monitoring of Iran's harsh retaliation against protesters, which included mass killings and disappearances. Initially, Israel and the US had no plans for further operations after "Operation Rising Lion," but reports of widespread atrocities prompted Israel's defense establishment to declare, "The moment for another operation will come; it is inevitable." This decision was driven by both the nuclear threat and a moral obligation to act against mass killings, alongside a strategic opportunity for regime change.

• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump to strengthen cooperation and approve a joint strategic plan.
• The Israeli delegation presented three pillars for regime change: alternative leadership, targeted influence campaigns, and ground operations, with an official clarifying, "We are going to create the conditions for regime change."
• Economically, Iran faces severe sanctions, frozen oil exports, and rising unemployment, while militarily, its defense industry has been significantly impacted.
• A "clock game" is underway, with US pressure on Iran's economic lifelines (UAE and China) and growing concern in Israel about a potential Iranian attack to alleviate economic pressure.