Damascus is proposing a ‘hudna,’ not a security deal

Syria is proposing a limited "hudna," or temporary security arrangement, with Israel, not a comprehensive peace deal, according to an analysis of recent statements and actions. Syrian Foreign Minister Al-Shaibani stated on August 22 that Syria is "extending its hand for understandings, for peace, for diplomacy" but clarified there are no plans for peace or recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. This offer, focused on border security and IDF withdrawal, is viewed as a tactical move by President Ahmed al-Sharaa to consolidate power and secure reconstruction aid, rather than a genuine shift from jihadist ideology. Evidence suggests al-Sharaa's moderate rhetoric is contradicted by his organization's past statements, including congratulating Hamas on the October 7 attacks, and ongoing persecution of minorities.

• Israel should demand formal Syrian recognition of its sovereignty over the Golan Heights west of the 1974 line in exchange for any agreement, leveraging incentives like sanctions relief and reconstruction support.
• Any deal must include ironclad, verifiable guarantees, preferably U.S.-backed, to prevent Turkish military entrenchment and expansion in Syria, including explicit bans on Turkish bases and forces south of defined lines.
• The current status quo is advantageous for Israel, allowing freedom of action in Syrian airspace and southern Syria, and providing strategic flight routes to Iran.
• A narrow security deal that restricts Israeli freedom of action without significant gains, such as Golan recognition and Turkish military restrictions, would be detrimental, as a hudna is often used to rearm and is discarded when conditions improve.