Eisenkot opens up a lead on Netanyahu in new ToI poll, but both blocs shy of majority

Former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition Yashar party would win 25 seats in the Knesset while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud would win just 21 if elections were held now, according to a poll published Thursday by The Times of Israel’s Hebrew sister site Zman Yisrael.

Yashar has led most polls in recent weeks, though Likud has usually been hot on his heels, tied or a seat or two behind, with the new results indicating a widening margin for Eisenkot.

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But overall, the poll showed little change in the sizes of the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs of parties. The so-called change bloc of Netanyahu’s opponents would win 58 seats, short of a majority of 61 in the 120-seat Knesset, while the pro-Netanyahu parties would win 50 seats.

Arab parties would win 12 seats, split evenly between Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al.

Behind the two leading parties, the center-right B’Yachad received 13 seats in the Zman Yisrael poll while the hawkish Yisrael Beytenu won 11 and the left-wing Democrats picked up nine. All are part of the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

Following those were a succession of pro-Netanyahu parties. Shas and United Torah Judaism, both Haredi factions, would win eight each. The far-right Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism parties would win seven and six seats, respectively.

Three parties vying for the votes of right-wingers who are disenchanted with Likud would all receive too few votes to enter the Knesset, though together they were forecast to pick up some 6 percent of the overall vote, well above the 3.5% minimum threshold.

The poll included 500 respondents and was conducted on August 12-13, with a 4.4% margin of error.

With Eisenkot increasingly appearing to cement his status as Netanyahu’s top challenger ahead of the October 27 elections, Channel 12 news reported Thursday that the Shin Bet is considering providing an armed security detail for him.

Eisenkot is not formally entitled to a state-issued security detail because he is not a “symbol of the state,” the network noted, but Shin Bet chief David Zini was considering providing security for him as the election campaign heats up and amid indications that Iran had stepped up efforts to harm Israeli leaders.

Zini could alternatively seek to arrange a security detail for Eisenkot via the Israel Defense Forces or the Knesset Guard, the report said.

Eisenkot’s field director wrote to Zini at the end of June saying the Yashar leader had been forced to hire private bodyguards to protect him. The television report said these bodyguards are not armed.

The June letter also noted that Eisenkot would be particularly exposed as the election campaign gathers pace, with the Yashar leader regularly making public appearances whose details are advertised ahead of time.

Also Thursday, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said his B’Yachad party would not block the formation of an opposition-led government, but repeatedly declined to say explicitly that it would endorse Eisenkot as prime minister.

Lapid is the number-two candidate in B’Yachad, Hebrew for “together,” behind former prime minister Naftali Bennett. Bennett was previously seen as the most credible rival to Netanyahu and has presented himself as a candidate for the job.

In recent months however, his poll numbers have sunk, and he has been eclipsed by Eisenkot.

Speaking with Channel 12, Lapid — who also previously served as premier — was repeatedly pressed as to whether he would endorse Eisenkot for prime minister should current polling numbers hold. Lapid declined to explicitly say he would, but stressed his party would not pose an obstacle to forming an opposition-led government after the election.

Asked whether the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc’s largest party should become prime minister, Lapid responded, “I want to reassure everyone. We and Gadi Eisenkot will know how to form a government. It isn’t a horse race and it isn’t a competition over numbers.”

Eisenkot declared last week that “the next prime minister must be the head of the largest party in the bloc,” referring to Bennett’s stint as premier from 2021-2022 which was controversial in part because his faction had only seven Knesset seats at the time.

“There’s no chance in the world that Bennett and I will prevent a good, worthy, Zionist government for the State of Israel,” Lapid added.

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