Fresh election poll shows both blocs shy of majority; new right-wing parties fall short

A poll by the Kan public broadcaster on Sunday showed neither the pro- nor anti-Netanyahu blocs gaining enough seats to form a government following the October 27 election, in line with the vast majority of polls in recent months.

According to the poll, neither of the two new right-wing parties established as alternatives to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud would gain enough votes to enter the Knesset. One is led by politicians Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel. The other is led by Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, both of whom are former ministers from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud Party.

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Benny Gantz’s center-right Blue and White party, thought to be in the same ideological lane as those two parties, also fell short in the poll.

The Erdan-Edelstein party, founded last week, has faced an uncertain polling landscape. But that didn’t stop Likud from attacking the faction led by two of Netanyahu’s former lieutenants. On Sunday, Likud and Erdan both accused each other of stealing right-wing votes.

The founding of the new right-wing parties hasn’t significantly altered the overall polling picture, with about 11 weeks to go until the vote. Instead, of late, some campaign drama has taken place within the pro- and anti-Netanyahu blocs.

In the anti-Netanyahu camp, Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz resigned from the Knesset, amid reports that he is set to join the Arab Ra’am party in a political shakeup.

And on Sunday, Haredi lawmaker Moshe Gafni, a longtime Netanyahu ally, claimed that he may not support the premier following the election. He leads the Degel HaTorah faction, part of the Haredi United Torah Judaism party, which has been a close ally of Netanyahu in successive governments but has fought with him over legislation that would exempt Haredi men from military enlistment.

“This time, I won’t say ahead of time that I’m going with Netanyahu,” Gafni said, according to Hebrew media reports.

Netanyahu’s coalition advanced legislation to enshrine blanket exemptions from conscription for yeshiva students, but UTJ lawmakers accused the prime minister of slow-walking the measure. But then, near the end of the most recent Knesset session, Netanyahu’s coalition passed a raft of laws meant to favor Haredim, many of which were unpopular with voters.

Since then, both Netanyahu and the Haredi parties have tried to create daylight between them, allegedly so that they don’t appear beholden to each other. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who heads the anti-Netanyahu B’Yachad party, said that was what lay behind Gafni’s words.

“Don’t get confused: Gafni, Bibi and Deri are the same,” Bennett posted on X, referring to Netanyahu ally Aryeh Deri, chair of the Haredi Shas party. “Whoever really wants to draft Haredim and help IDF soldiers knows that he must leave the fomenters of draft-dodging, Deri and Gafni, out of the government.”

The Kan poll showed Likud leading with 24 seats, while Yashar, led by his top rival Gadi Eisenkot, would win 23.

Next in line were three anti-Netanyahu parties: the centrist B’Yachad with 13, the left-wing Democrats with 10 and the hawkish Yisrael Beytenu with 10. After that were three pro-Netanyahu parties with eight seats each: the far-right Otzma Yehudit, and the Haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism parties. The pro-Netanyahu far-right Religious Zionism party would win five seats.

Among Arab parties, Ra’am would win six, while Hadash-Ta’al would win five and Balad would fall short of gaining any seats.

Overall, the poll showed the anti-Netanyahu bloc with 56 seats, the pro-Netanyahu parties with 53, and the Arab parties with 11, all short of a 61-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

That calculus could change, however, if Segalovitz joins Ra’am, which might make the party more palatable to the anti-Netanyahu bloc and allow it to join a coalition to unseat the premier.

Ra’am is a historically Islamist party that joined a 2021 government that briefly unseated Netanyahu. This time, however, some anti-Netanyahu parties have pledged not to join with Arab parties to form a coalition. Against that backdrop, Ra’am has announced its intention to depart from its religious roots and become a civic-oriented party.

Recent reports have indicated that Segalovitz is set to join the party. On Sunday, he submitted his resignation letter to Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, three days after announcing that he was leaving Opposition Leader Yair Lapid’s centrist Yesh Atid party.

In a statement, Ohana’s spokesman said that according to the Yesh Atid list, Segalovitz is slated to be replaced in the Knesset by Michal Slawny Cababia. Cababia is an American immigrant who has headed the Yesh Atid English speakers’ branch.

Segalovitz informed fellow Yesh Atid members on Thursday that he was leaving the party, amid the reported talks about joining Ra’am. Segalovitz, a former deputy internal security minister, has yet to confirm that he intends to join Ra’am, but he also hasn’t denied considering the unprecedented move.

Also on Sunday, Likud said former party stalwarts Edelstein and Erdan are “embittered fake right-wingers” who will help the prime minister’s opponents gain power.

Erdan and Edelstein’s breakaway party is meant to capture Likud voters dissatisfied with the direction the party has gone under Netanyahu. They have vowed to push against ultra-Orthodox draft exemptions and seek to be part of a broad consensus government.

In its first official reaction to the unnamed party’s rollout, Likud charged that Edelstein and Erdan “are working to steal votes and transfer them to the fraudulent government of the left bloc headed by Eisenkot with [Democrats leader] Yair Golan and the Muslim Brotherhood.”

In response, Erdan released a statement attacking Likud for being the one stealing right-wing votes.

“Those stealing the votes of right-wing voters are the ones who perpetuate draft evasion and abandon the families of soldiers and service members,” the statement said.

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