From Hamas disarmament to governance in Gaza, the five challenges of the new Gaza plan – analysis

Hamas has reportedly agreed to a plan for implementing the next stages of US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace initiative, which could lead to Hamas disarming, an Israeli withdrawal from parts of Gaza, the deployment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF), and governance by the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). However, the plan faces five significant challenges:

• Verifying Hamas's disarmament: Ensuring Hamas surrenders its extensive arsenal, including rockets and tunnels, will be difficult, as the group has a history of rebuilding capabilities.
• Sequencing of Israeli withdrawal: Disputes over the timing of Israeli withdrawal parallel to Hamas's disarmament could stall the process.
• NCAG's ability to govern Gaza: The NCAG faces the immense task of restoring devastated infrastructure and establishing legitimacy among Palestinians while cooperating with international actors.
• Effectiveness of the International Stabilization Force: The ISF, comprising personnel from countries like Morocco and Kosovo, will need a strong mandate and sufficient resources to prevent armed groups from re-emerging, a challenge previous peacekeeping missions in the region have faced.
• Regional political environment: Broader Middle East crises, particularly involving Iran and its proxies, could derail the agreement, requiring sustained diplomatic engagement from supporting regional actors.