Inside Israel's intelligence room: The unfolding drama amid Turkey's secret military expansion in Syria
In July 2025, Ankara delivered an unusual present to Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Syrian army: a batch of four advanced, brand-new armored personnel carriers produced domestically.This episode, unfolding more than a year ago, is merely a symptom of a far broader regional trend. Turkey has steadily cemented its military and diplomatic footprint in Syria, operating under Israel’s watchful gaze.The strike capabilities of the Turkish Air Force, which boasts an advanced fleet of F-16 fighter jets and may soon acquire F-35s, have similarly drawn intense scrutiny.It stands to reason that over this prolonged period, the Intelligence Directorate detected far more than the initial four APCs. Yet, until last week, Israel gritted its teeth and exercised restraint. Whenever it did intervene, it maintained a strictly clandestine profile. Despite the occasional belligerent rhetoric and the inevitable back-channel messages passed through third parties, the sweeping Turkish initiative to funnel an endless stream of military hardware into…
Israel's intelligence community has been closely monitoring Turkey's expanding military presence in Syria for over a year, according to a JNS report. This surveillance intensified after Turkey delivered advanced armored personnel carriers to the Syrian army in July 2025. The recent Israeli strike on Abu al-Duhur Airbase in Syria's Idlib region marked a significant shift, signaling an end to Israel's previous containment strategy regarding Turkish military buildup. This action reflects a broader recognition that the lessons from October 7 apply to Turkey's growing influence. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's expansionist vision, extending beyond Syria, has been noted by Israeli intelligence, with one official stating, "In 15 years, there will be two regional powers in the Middle East—Israel and Turkey." The Nagel Committee also warned in January 2025 that "The presence of Turkey's proxies or Turkish forces in Syria could deepen the danger of a direct Turkish-Israeli conflict."
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