Iranian regime ‘running out of options’

Amid escalating economic pressure and fears of an internal uprising, observers are questioning potential retaliatory actions by Iran and its proxies, particularly during the Jewish High Holiday period. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that severe economic strain could push Iran towards “steps of desperation,” stating that an Iranian attack on Israel would lead to a devastating Israeli response targeting all Iranian infrastructure. Concurrently, senior Hamas official Bassem Naim visited Tehran, meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who reiterated Iran’s support for Hamas and a shared goal of confronting the U.S.

“There are signs we are seeing that indicate that the severe economic pressure Iran is under and the fear of an uprising and of the regime’s collapse could push them toward steps of desperation,” Katz said.

Beni Sabti of INSS noted that while the regime is resilient to domestic pressure, widespread protests could challenge its control. Jason Brodsky of United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) believes that both Israel and the U.S. anticipate an Iranian response to the “economic strangulation,” suggesting that a weaker Iran serves their interests despite the risk of miscalculation. Brodsky concluded that while Iran’s intent to eliminate Israel remains, its capabilities and proxy network have significantly diminished since October 2023.