Iran’s calculated gamble: Keep Israel out, turn Hormuz into the battlefield

The recent military confrontation in the region, while reminiscent of past campaigns, notably excludes Israel. Iran is deliberately avoiding striking Israel, and the U.S. is emphasizing that Israel is not involved, despite Prime Minister Netanyahu's desire to join. The crisis centers on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran is using to disrupt shipping and attack vessels, aiming to make it the focus of the conflict and sideline the nuclear issue. Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Iran's leader, stated, "Hormuz is more important than dozens of atomic bombs and we will defend it."

• Iran's leadership, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is demonstrating a willingness to use force while also seeking improved conditions for negotiations.
• U.S. President Trump, frustrated by Iran's rigidity and rising oil prices, initially threatened heavy fees on Hormuz vessels but reversed course. He also made various declarations, including about a secret Iranian nuclear facility, "Pickaxe Mountain," stating, "We’re going to take out Pickaxe Mountain. Tell the Iranians to get ready."
• Unusual activity at "Pickaxe Mountain" suggests potential uranium enrichment, raising concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions under its current leadership.
• Tensions also extended to Yemen, with a Saudi strike on Sana'a airport and Houthi retaliation, though broader regional efforts aim to prevent further escalation and preserve a fragile status quo.