Iran's 'last man standing': Will weakening Houthis put Iran's Middle East plans to bed? – analysis
If the Iranian regime doesn’t collapse, that doesn’t mean change is stymied. In fact, a blockaded and weakened Iran may not be able to support its proxies as much.
Despite initial assumptions that US and Israeli strikes in February would lead to the collapse or significant weakening of the Iranian regime, Iran has largely withstood these blows. However, a blockaded and weakened Iran may struggle to support its proxies, with the Houthis emerging as the "last man standing" among them. Other Iranian proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah have seen their capabilities severely degraded, arguably to 2002-2006 levels, and face improved Israeli defense technology. The focus is now on the Houthis, who are reportedly weaker due to a US blockade cutting off Iranian funding and supplies. While the Houthis are "serially poor at defending cities and coastal areas," dislodging them from highlands remains challenging, according to expert Michael Knights. A successful strategy against them would involve a "concentric attack on [more than] six fronts with air power intervening as needed." This pressure on proxies indicates a shift from Iran's regional expansion a decade ago, suggesting that decades of investment in these groups may no longer be paying off effectively.
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