Iran’s regime is losing the ability to govern

The United States has reportedly shifted its strategy against Iran, moving beyond degrading military capabilities to eroding the regime's capacity to govern. This new phase targets a wider range of infrastructure, including bridges, ports, and energy networks, aiming to disrupt the state's overall function and increase long-term strategic costs. While Iran responds by widening the battlefield with threats to regional partners and shipping, these actions may indicate a narrowing of its viable options. The most critical variable remains Kharg Island and Gulf energy routes, as sustained disruption there would escalate the conflict into a global energy crisis.

• The probability of the Islamic Republic's collapse is higher than ever, though its timing and pathway are uncertain.
• Regime collapse is unlikely from external military pressure alone; it typically requires a convergence of military and economic pressure with civil unrest, elite fragmentation, and declining loyalty within the security apparatus.
• The decisive factor is the gradual loss of the state's capacity to govern, not merely the destruction of military facilities.
• Before a breaking point, the regime will likely intensify domestic repression and seek diplomatic arrangements to buy time.