Israel and Turkey compete for regional hegemony

The strategic focus in the Middle East is shifting from Iran to a power struggle between Israel and Turkey, according to senior diplomatic officials. The U.S. is increasingly viewing Turkey as a key regional actor, capable of assuming roles traditionally held by Israel, partly due to President Trump's rapport with Turkish President Erdoğan and a desire for new approaches to regional challenges. Turkey aims to become the leading power in the Sunni world and a dominant influence in the Levant, competing with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

• Israel is concerned about potential U.S. approval of F-35 sales to Turkey, which it argues would undermine its Qualitative Military Edge. Prime Minister Netanyahu has appealed to Trump to block the sale, and Israel is lobbying Congress.
• Jerusalem views Turkey as its primary strategic competitor, citing its strong military, expanding defense industry, and growing regional influence.
• The rivalry spans multiple arenas, including Turkish support for Hamas, its expanding role in Syria, and competition in the Eastern Mediterranean over energy and security cooperation.
• Despite the intensifying competition, direct military confrontation is not imminent, but both nations are engaged in a long-term strategic contest over the future regional order.