Israel’s Election and Eisenkot’s Arab Coalition Dilemma

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of Israel's Yashar Party and former IDF chief of staff, has emerged as a leading opposition figure ahead of the October 27, 2026, elections, polling similarly to Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud. Despite his surge, neither Eisenkot's opposition bloc nor Netanyahu's coalition is projected to secure the 61 Knesset seats needed for a majority, making Arab-majority political parties potential "kingmakers."

• Eisenkot's appeal stems from his military background, lack of corruption scandals, and a platform supporting a state inquiry into October 7, universal national service, term limits for the prime minister, and judicial independence.
• The broader opposition, including Yashar, is projected to win around 58 seats, while Netanyahu's coalition is expected to secure 52. Arab parties are projected to win 10-11 seats, which are crucial for any opposition majority.
• A significant challenge for Eisenkot is that 70% of Jewish Israelis oppose including an Arab party in the government. While he has not ruled out Arab support, he requires any coalition partner to recognize Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, endorse the Declaration of Independence, and commit to military or national service.
• These conditions could allow Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party, which previously joined a governing coalition, to participate. Abbas has publicly accepted Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and expressed openness to voluntary national service. Netanyahu's campaign is exploiting Eisenkot's ambiguity on this issue, using slogans like "Eisenkot has no government without the Arab parties" to deter Jewish voters.