Israel’s new Syria dilemma: Netanyahu’s Russia playbook faces 'Turkey test'

In August 2026, Israel faces a new dilemma in Syria, reminiscent of its 2015 challenge with Russia. Following Russia's intervention in Syria in 2015, then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu established a deconfliction mechanism with President Vladimir Putin, allowing Israel to conduct hundreds of strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets in Syria without clashing with Russian forces. This understanding was based on mutual interests: Russia sought to preserve its regional foothold by supporting Bashar al-Assad, while Israel aimed to prevent Iran and Hezbollah from entrenching themselves.

“You take care of your business, I'll take care of mine, and we need not clash as long as we remain within our respective spheres.”

However, a recent Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur air base in Idlib province, reportedly being prepared for Turkish forces, has introduced a new dynamic. Netanyahu stated, "We will not tolerate a Turkish military buildup extending southward." This action, aimed at preventing Turkey from establishing a military presence that could threaten Israeli air superiority and freedom of action, has prompted calls from the US for a deconfliction mechanism with Turkey. Unlike Russia, Turkey's ideological and historical ambitions, coupled with its hostile rhetoric towards Israel, present a more complex challenge for replicating the successful deconfliction model.