'Potential for confrontation with Turkey has increased,' warns ex-National Security Council chief

Meir Ben-Shabbat, former head of Israel's National Security Council, warned against complacency regarding Syria and Turkey's increasing regional influence in a Maariv interview. He cautioned that while Israel should pursue peace, it must not compromise security assets or rely on potentially reversible agreements. Ben-Shabbat stated that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's changed appearance should not be mistaken for a change in his ideological path, noting, "one should not be impressed by the change in his outward appearance and under no circumstances assume that he has abandoned his path."

• Turkey is exploiting regional power vacuums to become a dominant force, particularly in Syria, where it is financing and training a "new Syrian army" and developing infrastructure.
• The newly signed Mecca Joint Defense Agreement (MJDA) between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan reflects a rising Sunni axis, positioning Turkey as a diplomatic and military leader.
• Turkey's "Blue Homeland" doctrine (Mavi Vatan) creates maritime friction in the Eastern Mediterranean, clashing with Israel's energy alliances.
• Turkey continues to support Hamas and is actively campaigning to institutionalize accusations against Israel internationally.

Ben-Shabbat emphasized that Turkey and Iran, while both concerning, require distinct approaches. He concluded that Israel must prioritize its security, maintain security margins, and avoid exchanging tangible assets for agreements that may prove temporary.