Syria’s precarious balancing act: Iran, Turkey and the Israeli calculus

Syria, under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, is actively working to disrupt Iranian arms routes and Hezbollah's logistics network, despite Iranian threats of retaliation. Damascus has intercepted significant Iranian arms shipments, including at the Al-Tanf crossing, and deployed divisions along the Lebanese border to target smuggling routes. This anti-Iranian stance aligns with a broader Syrian policy of distancing itself from Tehran, prompting Iran's warning against supporting the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Hezbollah.

• Syria and Israel, along with the United States, signed the Syria-Israel Joint Communication Mechanism Agreement in January 2026 to coordinate intelligence and manage border friction, though a comprehensive peace treaty remains stalled over the Golan buffer zone.
• Turkey has emerged as Syria's primary security partner, actively training and restructuring the Syrian national army and potentially deploying additional military assets, a development that could significantly impact Israel's strategic freedom of action.
• Russia is restructuring its military presence in Syria, converting Khmeimim Air Base and the Tartus naval facility into joint Syrian-Russian training centers and civilian infrastructure.
• Israel maintains positions inside Syrian territory, citing the need to counter hostile elements, while facing U.S. pressure for withdrawal.