Tehran prepares to turn Hormuz into an instrument of regional pressure
The central question in Iran is no longer simply whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, but who will determine which vessels are allowed to pass through it and under what conditions.The government is continuing negotiations with Oman over navigation arrangements and is discussing a return to the understandings contained in the Islamabad Memorandum. At the same time, lawmakers are seeking to enshrine in law Iran’s ability to distinguish between vessels it considers acceptable and those it deems hostile.The Islamabad Memorandum is the framework of understandings signed in June between Iran and the United States through Pakistani mediation. Among other provisions, it stipulated that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that the U.S. would lift its naval blockade of Iran. The agreement also addressed the cessation of hostilities and the opening of broader negotiations on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program.The signing, however, did not resolve disputes over the…
Iran is attempting to transform the Strait of Hormuz into a tool for political leverage, seeking to control which vessels can pass and under what conditions. Lawmakers are considering a bill to prohibit Israeli ships and those from “hostile” or sanctioning nations, as well as imposing transit fees. This initiative links the confrontation with Israel, Western sanctions, and demands for war reparations to maritime passage control.
- The Islamabad Memorandum, signed between Iran and the U.S. via Pakistani mediation, aimed to reopen the strait and lift the U.S. naval blockade, but disputes remain over navigation rules, security, and fees.
- Current daily traffic through the strait is less than one-tenth of pre-war levels, with only 33 vessels passing in the first four days after recent easing of restrictions, compared to approximately 140 daily before the conflict.
- President Masoud Pezeshkian views the Islamabad Memorandum as an ongoing process, including easing the naval blockade and sanctions, while differentiating the government's role in managing economic consequences from the security establishment's military policy.
- The “Mecca Alliance,” a new mutual defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, is viewed by some Iranian commentators as an effort to curb Iranian influence or protect against regional powers, raising concerns in Tehran.
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