'The blockade currently looks far more attractive than war'
Amid reports that Israel may now prefer to see the blockade on Iran remain in place rather than pursue renewed military action, observers in Israel have told JNS in recent days that this tactic would require American patience to exceed Iranian stamina.Brig. Gen. (res.) Dr. Sasson Haddad, a former financial adviser to the IDF chief of staff and ex-head of the Budget Division at the Defense Ministry, told JNS that after examining the question of who would break economically first, the U.S. or Iran, “my assessment was that Iran’s political staying power is longer.”To break Iran, he argued, “you need to bring about a situation where the regime itself faces an existential crisis. Iran’s internal economy is shattered, but the regime is far from that. The regime, as I understand it, is made up of three to four million people who live off the state, including the Revolutionary Guards, the…
Israeli observers suggest that maintaining a prolonged blockade on Iran is currently more attractive than military action, but its effectiveness hinges on sustained international commitment. Brig. Gen. (res.) Dr. Sasson Haddad notes that while Iran's internal economy is weak, its regime, supported by millions, is resilient. He states, "Economic strangulation can help if it's effective against that group. The problem is that even after the sanctions, the blockade and so on, the net cash flow to this group is still, in my assessment, positive." Dr. Yossi Mansharof adds that while militarily feasible, the blockade's political and economic sustainability is fragile, requiring enduring American support and Saudi Arabia's willingness to compensate for oil supply disruptions. Both experts agree that a blockade allows Israel to weaken Iran without the costs of war, but its global economic impact limits international enthusiasm.
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