The difficulty of predicting a nuclear war

The article discusses the increasing plausibility of nuclear war, emphasizing that while there has never been a nuclear war, the current global landscape makes it a realistic threat. It argues that all potential nuclear conflicts would be intolerable and have irreversible, transformative impacts on human survival. The author stresses that prevention is key and that "deep thinkers," not political leaders, should be entrusted with developing science-based strategies to avoid such a catastrophe. The piece highlights the critical distinction between intentional and unintentional nuclear war, noting its complexity and importance for national survival. It also introduces the concept of "synergy" in nuclear conflict, where the cumulative impact of intersecting factors could be greater than the sum of its parts, particularly in scenarios involving Iran, North Korea, Russia, China, India, or Pakistan. The article concludes by noting that even non-nuclear belligerents like Iran could inflict significant harm through cyber warfare against critical infrastructure, potentially relying on nuclear-state allies or advanced cyber weapons.