The El-Sayed effect: How Jews and Israel are factoring into Michigan’s primaries

DETROIT (JTA) — The intra-party debate over Israel that has dominated Michigan’s Democratic US Senate primary is reverberating further down the ballot throughout the state.

Progressive former county health official Abdul El-Sayed’s bid to lead a swing state as an avowedly pro-Palestinian senator is being mirrored on a micro scale in Michigan’s 7th District — one of the nation’s most hotly contested congressional seats. In addition to endorsing a candidate there, El-Sayed and his movement have also taken aim at a Detroit-area incumbent who has belatedly embraced a pro-Israel platform, while a key architect of the 2024 “Uncommitted” movement is also running for local office.

In contrast, a young Jewish candidate hopes to pick up the mantle of El-Sayed’s rival in the Senate race, centrist US Rep. Haley Stevens — and buck a growing national trend of Democrats turning away from supporting Israel. Jewish Democrats in the state, many of whom are drifting away from the party as a result of the discourse around the primary, are watching closely.

Here’s what you need to know about how Israel and Jewish issues are affecting other races in Michigan’s primary on Tuesday.

In Michigan’s 7th District, William Lawrence, a former climate activist who has called for an end to all military aid to Israel, is challenging two centrist Democrats for the party’s nomination.

The district, which stretches from the state capitol in Lansing into the Detroit exurbs and encompasses Michigan State University, is currently represented by a Republican. But Democrats are eyeing it as a promising pickup; the seat was previously held by Jewish Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who won her Senate election in 2024 even as Donald Trump won the state.

Lawrence’s campaign, though, is far from Slotkin’s staunchly moderate playbook. Lawrence recently rallied with El-Sayed, independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Lansing, where he called to “stop arming Israel and bring our money home to invest in housing and social security.”

Both of his major primary opponents, former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL and Obama military aide Matt Maasdam, declined to refer to Israel’s conduct in Gaza as a genocide at a candidate forum, while Lawrence did. Recent polling from two Brink-sponsored firms shows Brink in the lead, while an April poll from the Lawrence-aligned Data For Progress puts him ahead by 6 points. Lawrence’s hopes for the nomination likely rest on Brink and Maasdam splitting the establishment vote.

As with many progressives running this cycle, opposition to Israel makes up a key part of Lawrence’s pitch — which his campaign feels confident about, despite the purple political makeup of the district.

“There is broad support for ending military support to human rights abusers and bringing that money home to fund good jobs, housing, and healthcare here at home,” his campaign told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency in an emailed statement responding to a list of questions about his positions on Israel.

Lawrence was a co-founder of the influential climate activist group Sunrise Movement, which has experienced infighting over pro-Palestinian advocacy. His rhetoric on Israel also played a role in the biggest scandal of his campaign to date. Comments he made on a 2024 podcast disparaging Black Democratic leaders as “a pillar, frankly, for establishment, capitalist, imperialist American power” that “defangs the white left” resurfaced shortly before his big-ticket rally earlier this month.

The Congressional Black Caucus condemned his remarks and called on his supporters to “withdraw their support.” In a subsequent statement, Lawrence said he had been referencing “my horror at the genocide in Gaza” and talking about working “to organize Black Americans against the genocide.” (Though she appeared at the Lansing rally with him, Ocasio-Cortez has declined to endorse Lawrence.)

Fewer than 10,000 Jews live in the greater Lansing area, out of a total population of 479,000, according to a 2021 population report from Brandeis University. Local Jewish institutions have expressed alarm about El-Sayed’s movement: When the candidate brought left-wing streamer Hasan Piker to MSU’s campus for a rally earlier this year, the university’s Hillel issued a statement saying it was “deeply troubled” by the appearance of what it called a “known antisemite.”

Asked by JTA about the safety of his Jewish would-be constituents, Lawrence’s campaign responded, “Will takes Jewish safety extremely seriously and stands firmly against anti-semetisim [sic] which is unfortunately on the rise across the political spectrum.” The Brink and Maasdam campaigns did not respond to JTA requests for comment.

Why is a Detroit-area race between two non-Jews, in a district with few Jews, also pivoting on Israel? The answer reveals the state of intra-left politics today.

In Michigan’s 13th District, encompassing much of Detroit and its western suburbs, state Rep. Donavan McKinney is challenging incumbent US Rep. Shri Thanedar for the Democratic nomination. A member of the Democratic Socialists of America who has been endorsed by, and campaigned with, El-Sayed and national pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel figures, McKinney’s campaign literature champions a focus on “kitchen-table issues,” including public health in Detroit.

Yet his website’s major policies also include a large section labeled “Palestine,” in which he pledges to end military aid to Israel and calls on Israel to “release all Palestinians who have been detained.”

A Black politician running against an Indian-American incumbent in a majority-Black district, McKinney has also made racial representation a central factor to his campaign, twinning Black identity with the pro-Palestinian cause as a growing number of other local activists have also done.

McKinney’s embrace of the issue could play particularly well in his race against Thanedar, who has — unusually — ventured from the left to the center on Israel. A businessman and failed gubernatorial candidate (he and El-Sayed both lost the Democratic primary to Gretchen Whitmer in 2018), Thanedar was initially a DSA member himself. As a state legislator in 2021, he co-sponsored legislation calling for an end to US military support of Israel.

He abruptly changed course during his 2022 congressional run, in a redrawn district formerly held by Palestinian-American Rep. Rashida Tlaib. Thanedar then expressed more pro-Israel views on the campaign trail even as pro-Israel lobbyists AIPAC endorsed an opponent. (He largely self-financed his successful congressional run.)

Once in Congress, Thanedar took an AIPAC-sponsored trip to Israel and shifted his views to become a staunch pro-Israel advocate. After the deadly October 7, 2023, Hamas-led invasion of Israel, he renounced his DSA membership, citing a New York rally hosted by the group praising the attacks that he called “hate-filled and antisemitic.”

“I see this as the biggest murdering of Jews since the Holocaust,” Thanedar told the Michigan Advance of the attacks, also publicly criticizing Tlaib for her own response. AIPAC, once his enemy, spent more than $2 million on his 2024 reelection campaign, according to federal disclosures. The lobbyists are fundraising for Thanedar again this cycle, though the latest reported federal elections data indicate that AIPAC-aligned spending for him has been a tiny fraction of the millions it has spent in other races.

The battle looks to be bruising. Polling is scant, but a progressive-aligned poll earlier this month had Thanedar a narrow 4 points up. On Monday, a handful of Congressional Black Caucus members, breaking with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, endorsed McKinney — a rare measure to take against an incumbent. The caucus’s McKinney backers include Reps. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Summer Lee of Pennsylvania, both hardline Israel critics.

Neither McKinney’s nor Thanedar’s campaigns responded to JTA requests for comment for this article.

As Jewish Democrats in Oakland County, home to affluent, heavily Jewish Detroit suburbs, have bemoaned the state-level Democratic tilt toward anti-Israel rhetoric, many are clinging to a silver lining: state Sen. Jeremy Moss, who is bidding for Stevens’s congressional seat in the 11th District.

Moss, a Jewish and pro-Israel candidate, has a campaign platform of standard liberal issues including gun safety, cost of living and LGBTQ rights (Moss is gay). He has been endorsed by many of the state’s leading Democrats. And while his campaign website platform doesn’t mention Israel or antisemitism, he has angrily denounced antisemitism in both parties.

“The overwhelming majority of Jews believe in a place of refuge in a Jewish homeland. But if you even mention how woven the Jewish religion is with Jewish sovereignty in Israel, today you get called a ‘colonizer,’ a ‘racist,’” Moss said in a 2024 speech from the state Senate floor. “‘Zionist’ is now being weaponized as a slur, and it is infuriating that the same people who will say that also post ‘Happy Passover’ to all who are observing without acknowledging what we’re actually observing.”

Moss called out antisemitism on the left again after the attack on Temple Israel in West Bloomfield earlier this year. Following the state Democratic convention in Detroit, at which a lawyer for pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel encampments who had a social media history of praising Hezbollah received the party’s nomination for the University of Michigan board of regents, Moss called the nomination “unacceptable” and said he would refuse to vote for the nominee. Moss’s campaign did not return a JTA request for comment for this story.

Many Jews in the district who back Stevens also have high praise for Moss — though AIPAC, which has broken campaign records in spending for Stevens’s Senate race, has spent minimally for Moss, according to the latest federal elections data. Democratic Majority for Israel made a small donation to his campaign, as have former AIPAC leaders.

Moss probably doesn’t need their support: He has a strong likelihood of prevailing in the primary. Though polling in the district is scant, he dwarfs his competitors in fundraising and name recognition. Some pro-Palestinian progressives, including California US Rep. Ro Khanna, have backed Aisha Farooqi, an attorney who has called to halt military aid to Israel. Her campaign, though, hasn’t caught on with El-Sayed’s supporters on the level of Lawrence’s or McKinney’s. Another fringe candidate, Don Ufford, launched a website called “AIPAC Jeremy Moss” in a bid to target the presumptive frontrunner.

Should Moss prevail in the primary and in the general election, he would return the heavily Jewish district to Jewish representation for the first time since former US Rep. Andy Levin lost his 2022 reelection bid to Stevens — in a redistricted primary that saw AIPAC backing Stevens. Levin, a progressive, is backing El-Sayed in the Senate race.

Further down the ballot, a key architect of Michigan’s 2024 “Uncommitted” movement designed to pressure Democrats on Israel is running for state Senate — as a Democrat.

Abbas Alawieh, a Lebanese-American former legislative staffer for both Levin and Tlaib, is making a bid for local office after becoming a national name for his role in pushing Democrats to vote “Uncommitted” over former US president Joe Biden in the 2024 state primary ballot. The movement, which began as Listen to Michigan, was based largely on dissatisfaction with Biden’s support of Israel’s war in Gaza.

It attracted a groundswell of support — including from some Jews — and spread to other states, crystallizing a lack of enthusiasm for Biden that built to him stepping off the presidential ticket. Alawieh emerged again as a thorn in the party’s side during that year’s Democratic National Convention, when he and other “Uncommitted” delegates unsuccessfully lobbied to place a Palestinian speaker on the agenda.

As he now emerges as a party hopeful, Alawieh is mending some surprising fences in the establishment. This month he secured the endorsement of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and recently sat down for a meeting with former vice president Kamala Harris — who lost Michigan in her 2024 presidential run, which many analysts chalked up at least in part to “Uncommitted.” (Alawieh himself has said he voted for Harris, though not all of his movement’s co-founders did.)

The former VP “initiated” the meeting after months of phone calls, Alawieh said in a statement, adding that he had urged her to oppose “the Israeli military’s genocide in Gaza” and “ethnic cleansing” in Lebanon.

Alawieh says he doesn’t expect Israel to be a major part of his focus in the state Senate. Still, he recently told the Michigan Advance, “The party was undoubtedly wrong about Gaza in 2024.” His campaign did not respond to a JTA request for comment.

He is running in a district that includes Dearborn, which has a large Arab and Muslim population. Alawieh isn’t the only “Uncommitted”-adjacent figure running for office this primary cycle: In Wisconsin, Francesca Hong, who helped lead the parallel “Uninstructed” movement, has a plausible path to victory in her gubernatorial primary.

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