The Israel-Lebanon agreement will be won or lost in the first 150 meters

The Israel-Lebanon agreement, brokered by the U.S., faces its first test following an incident on July 21. After the Israeli military withdrew from Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, Lebanese forces reportedly advanced 150 meters into a security zone near Zawtar al-Sharqiyeh, an area still held by Israel and outside the agreed pilot zone. Israeli troops fired warning shots, leading to the Lebanese force's withdrawal without casualties. The Lebanese army, however, claimed its soldiers remained within Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh and described the Israeli firing as "an act of aggression."

The lesson of Oslo is clear: What is not enforced at the beginning of a process will not be enforced later.

The article emphasizes that resolving this initial dispute is crucial for the agreement's long-term success, drawing parallels to the Oslo Accords where unaddressed minor violations escalated into significant issues. It argues that Israel must insist on strict enforcement from the outset, ensuring that "no withdrawal without implementation, no progress without verification and no violation without consequences" to prevent the agreement from eroding.