The Kurds rose as Syria and Iraq collapsed – now, their fortunes are reversing

Kurdish political fortunes in Syria and Iraq are significantly reversing after a decade of unprecedented gains. The disbanding of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the dissolution of the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration of North East Syria on August 25 mark recent setbacks. A decade ago, Kurds controlled a contiguous area rich in resources, benefiting from the collapse of central state authority in both countries and their pro-Western, secular orientation.

• In 2017, an ill-prepared independence referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan led to the loss of 40% of their territory, including the oil-rich Kirkuk area, to the Iraqi army and Iran-backed militias.
• Further economic setbacks include Iraq's Federal Court ending the Kurdistan Regional Government's (KRG) independent oil export ability in 2022, leading to significant revenue losses and reduced autonomy.
• The US is planning to end security assistance to the KRG's Peshmerga forces, leaving them vulnerable to Iranian attacks.
• In Syria, the US decision to back the emergent Sunni Islamist regime in Damascus effectively sealed the fate of the Kurdish autonomous administration, leading to its dissolution and a significant loss of Kurdish autonomy.

These reversals are attributed to Kurdish political divisions and Western countries' shift to supporting centralized state governments in Syria and Iraq for stability, abandoning their former Kurdish allies.