The Opening After Netanyahu

Rahm Emanuel, former Obama White House chief of staff, has warned that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is jeopardizing Israel's alliance with the U.S., advocating for a "23-state solution" that integrates Palestinian sovereignty into a broader Arab-Israeli normalization deal. This approach is seen as the most realistic path forward, especially after the October 7 Hamas attack highlighted the limitations of previous strategies. A recent delegation to Israel and the West Bank, organized by J Street, observed the severe restrictions on Palestinians in Hebron and the devastating impact of the October 7 attacks.

• The future of the U.S.-Israeli alliance may depend on Israel's next election, scheduled for October 27, where opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot's centrist party, are polling ahead of Netanyahu's coalition.
• Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff, has criticized Netanyahu's handling of the Gaza war and resigned from the war cabinet, though he is not considered a dove and has suffered personal losses in the conflict.
• A new Israeli government, while unlikely to fully embrace a two-state solution or reverse course on Gaza, could take constructive steps to defuse tensions and accept constraints that Netanyahu rejects, offering a limited opening for diplomacy.
• The West Bank is experiencing a severe crisis due to increased settler violence and settlement expansion under the current Israeli government, with warnings that the situation could "explode." Opposition representatives have indicated they would crack down on settler violence and pursue a phased approach to Gaza's governance, involving the Palestinian Authority and Arab states.