The prognosis for Lebanon? A possibly healthier outcome

Lebanon is at a historic turning point, presenting an opportunity for positive change despite its long-standing dysfunctions. The primary reason is Hezbollah's weakened state following its decision to join the war with Israel after October 7, 2023. Hezbollah has suffered significant losses in its rocket arsenal, leadership, and domestic support, becoming more isolated outside the Shi'ite community. This shift is further compounded by the fall of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, which was a crucial lifeline for Hezbollah, and uncertainty regarding Iran's stability and finances.

• Lebanon now has a new president and prime minister, Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam, respectively, who are not beholden to Hezbollah and advocate for restoring the state's monopoly on weapons and reducing Iranian influence.
• The United States can leverage Lebanon's heavy dependence on Western aid to implement a strategy that strengthens the Lebanese state and weakens Hezbollah.
• Key steps include drying up Hezbollah's financial and Iranian support by creating mechanisms to reduce smuggling at the Syrian-Lebanese border and reforming airports and seaports.
• Additionally, reforms within the Lebanese Armed Forces, tied to clear benchmarks, are crucial to enforce the state's monopoly on weapons and strengthen alternative leadership options within the Shi'ite community.

While the road ahead is long and Hezbollah remains a force, this rare opening could lead to disarming a powerful terrorist organization, reducing Iranian influence, and advancing peace between Israel and Lebanon, potentially becoming a significant achievement for American foreign policy.