The war with Iran will not be won through airstrikes, so what's left? – opinion
Congressional recognition of minority independence; debt relief for indebted young Americans; and a Beijing deal on Iranian oil are the three options that haven’t been publicly discussed
The Pentagon is seeking new strategies for the conflict with Iran, as six months of intensive airstrikes have failed to collapse Iran's military capacity or resolve institutional and negotiating problems. The article proposes three non-kinetic approaches to end the war:
- Congressional recognition of the independence of Iran's minority groups (Kurds, Ahwazi Arabs, Baluchis, and Azeris), which constitute approximately 50% of the population. This would exert "maximum pressure" on the regime at "zero kinetic cost."
- Implementing an economic enlistment program for indebted military-age Americans, offering debt forgiveness for student loans and other debts in exchange for military service. This aims to address the significant troop numbers (750,000 to 1.5 million) estimated for a successful ground campaign against Iran.
- A Washington-to-Beijing agreement where China withdraws diplomatic and material support for Tehran in exchange for guaranteed access to Iranian oil under a post-conflict governance arrangement. This deal could be facilitated by President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to the US.
The author, AJ Jaff, suggests that while none of these moves alone will solve the problem, together they could break Iran's institutional coherence, which airstrikes have not achieved.
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