Trump’s trap: Solving Hormuz crisis saves Iranian regime, and threats don't work – analysis

The article analyzes the dilemma faced by the US regarding Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifted sanctions. US President Donald Trump has issued repeated threats against Iran while also pursuing negotiations. Iran's offer, which would ease the economic blockade imposed by the US, is seen as a tactic to resolve a crisis it manufactured, rather than addressing the core issues of its nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities. Accepting this deal would provide immediate economic relief to Iran, potentially stabilizing its regime and undermining US leverage for long-term strategic goals, such as regime change, which Israeli intelligence suggests is necessary for Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. The article questions Trump's resolve, especially given his past fluctuating rhetoric and the potential influence of upcoming elections on his decisions, stating, "Trump's credibility will not be restored by threatening Iran with annihilation yet again. It will be restored by demonstrating that the US will not exchange long-term strategic leverage for temporary calm and cheaper gasoline."