Turkey and Israel: Temporary Tensions or a Clash of Major Interests?

Relations between Turkey and Israel have entered a significantly more confrontational phase, evolving into a deeper strategic rivalry driven by competing regional interests and security concerns. The current deterioration reflects broader geopolitical transformations rather than temporary political disagreements. The escalation is marked by hostile rhetoric, suspended trade, and downgraded diplomatic representation.

• Palestine: This remains the most enduring source of disagreement, with Israel viewing Turkey as Hamas's primary external supporter.
• Post-Assad Syria: Israel is concerned by Turkey's expanding influence and military cooperation with the new Syrian government.
• Energy and Regional Infrastructure: Turkey opposes Israeli-backed energy transport initiatives, while Israel views Turkey's Development Road project as a rival.
• Balance of Power: Israel seeks to reshape the regional strategic landscape, while Turkey promotes a regional security framework based on major Muslim powers, which Israel interprets as a counter-coalition.

Despite the growing rivalry, a direct military confrontation is unlikely, with competition expected to continue through diplomatic pressure, economic measures, and strategic alliances.