Turning Turkey’s double bind against it: How Israel is outsmarting Erdogan – opinion

Turkey's strategic approach, characterized by a "double bind" of maintaining Western ties while asserting revisionist policies, is being countered by Israel. This strategy, which involves manufacturing friction and then brokering relief, has allowed Ankara to monetize its indispensability. However, Israel is actively working to dismantle this dependence by multiplying alternatives and fostering new partnerships. Key aspects of Israel's counter-strategy include:

• The "Sèvres Deterrent" doctrine, which weaponizes Turkey's need to remain indispensable by catalyzing partnerships and capabilities that Ankara fears.
• The "Constantinople Protocol," which operationalizes this deterrent through redundancy, ensuring that no Turkish gate (ports, airspace, finance, energy) remains singular and can be weaponized.
• A strong partnership with Greece and Cyprus, institutionalized through military cooperation, joint exercises, and interoperable infrastructure, forming the core of a new regional security architecture.
• Exploiting the limits of Turkish NATO membership: Israel treats it as a constraint, not a veto, particularly in scenarios where Turkish coercion escalates to force, such as an attack from occupied Cyprus or militarization of the Akkuyu nuclear plant.
• Leveraging Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union, which obligates EU members to aid Greece and Cyprus if they suffer armed aggression, providing Israel with strategic depth through partners backed by an obligation Ankara cannot veto.

The goal is to reduce the yield of Turkish coercion, as evidenced by the limited impact of Turkey's trade embargo on Israel, which instead accelerated diversification.