Victor Davis Hanson: Trump must set up an Iranian government-in-exile

Lazar Berman is The Times of Israel’s diplomatic reporter

Welcome to The Times of Israel’s Lazar Focus. Each Friday, join host diplomatic correspondent Lazar Berman for a deep dive into what’s behind the news that spins the globe.

This week, we want to take a broad look at the direction of US foreign policy.

How does domestic politics affect America’s ability to wage war? Is a moderate bump in gas prices enough to keep US President Donald Trump from achieving his goals against Iran? What changes after the midterms?

We also want to examine the nose-dive in support for Israel among Democrats, and the rise in antisemitism on the right wing of the Republican Party.

Prof. Victor Davis Hanson is one of the most prolific and well-known American historians. Trained as a classicist, he has written extensively on ancient and modern warfare. He also has unique insights into the currents driving US politics.

Hanson said that midterm elections often warp foreign policy. The incumbent party almost always loses, and with the Republicans holding a thin lead in the House of Representatives, they are in serious danger of losing the House. If that happens, said Hanson, Trump will face two years of impeachment hearings.

In addition, said Hanson, Americans are willing to support military action, but run out of patience quickly. “They don’t mind the violence,” he said. “They don’t mind, to be frank, how many people you kill. They don’t want to lose any Americans, but they want it short, and out of the Middle East especially.”

Hanson pointed out that Democratic Socialists have only won a few elections in deep blue states thus far, and they are not the inevitable future of the Democratic Party. Both parties have had fringe outliers that damage their chances, only to have course corrections in subsequent cycles.

What is unique about the Democratic Socialists phenomenon, he says, is that it is combined with an Islamist element: “What unites them is they hate Western civilization. They hate capitalism, even though they do quite well by it. They hate Israel. And I’ll be candid. I think they hate Jews as well.”

He argued that on the right, the Republican Party and broader conservative movement are pushing back on their antisemitic fringe.

Vance, said Hanson, is “brilliant.” He sees that Marco Rubio’s star is rising and is trying to find a way to position himself as the party’s frontrunner. Vance’s way to do so, said Hanson, is to appeal to the disaffected working-class whites he grew up around.

On Iran, Hanson stressed that the people leading the regime are fanatics. What the US should do is create a transitional government in exile in a nearby Arab country and send frozen regime funds to that body.

“Sow the seeds of dissension and let it work like that,” Hanson urged. “But I don’t think we need to talk to them anymore. It’s completely futile.”

Overall, he said Israel is in a strong position diplomatically and militarily, while Iran is weaker than many realize. Russia and China are also slipping economically and demographically, while the US is squeezing them out of places like South America.

Hanson argued that prioritizing the Palestinian cause is a “Western elite fetish in Europe and the United States.”

Finally, with one of the world’s leading classics scholars on the show, how could we not discuss Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey? Hanson called it “a spectacularly produced film, special effects, and he encouraged people to take an interest in Homer. But “it’s really not Homer’s Odyssey. I would call it a diverse, equitable and inclusive Odyssey, a DEI Odyssey.”

Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.

Check out last week’s Lazar Focus:

The war with Iran has been draining for all of us in Israel. But when I heard about a high casualty incident – ballistic missile impacts in Arad and Dimona that left nearly 200 people wounded – I drank a cup of coffee, packed a bag, and headed south.

There, I spoke with Shilgit, the head of an after-school program for underprivileged youth. Standing outside her destroyed center, Shilgit said it was a miracle that no children were hurt and spoke about the community coming together in the hours since.

As a Times of Israel reporter, I’m committed to telling stories of resilience like Shilgit’s. But my colleagues and I can't do this alone. If you value work like this, please consider joining our reader support group, The Times of Israel Community. Your financial support is essential to keep real human reporting like this going.

— Stav Levaton, military reporter