What happens after UNIFIL leaves Lebanon, and what might take its place? – explainer

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Jordan's King Abdullah II are meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris to discuss the future of UN peacekeeping in southern Lebanon as the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is scheduled to end operations by December 31, 2026. UNIFIL, established in 1978 and expanded after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, was tasked with confirming Israel's withdrawal, restoring peace, and assisting the Lebanese government, though it has faced criticism for not disarming Hezbollah. The force also serves as a crucial communication channel between Israel and Lebanon, which lack diplomatic relations.

UNIFIL's answer has long been that it was never given the job of forcibly disarming Hezbollah.

France and Italy are developing plans for a multinational successor, potentially a training and advisory mission for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), with over 10 EU countries expressing interest. However, a successor force might not provide the same patrolling, monitoring, or liaison functions as UNIFIL. Lebanon is lobbying for a limited extension of UNIFIL's mandate, supported by France, but faces opposition from the US and Israel. The core issue remains the Lebanese state's ability to become the sole armed authority in the south and address Hezbollah's military presence, a challenge the LAF struggles with due to resource shortages and political sensitivities.