What will happen if Iran, Egypt, Bangladesh join Mecca Joint Defense Agreement? – analysis

Less than three weeks after Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on August 7, 2024, the focus has shifted to potential new members. The agreement, signed by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, establishes that an armed attack against one member is considered an attack against all, aiming to strengthen collective deterrence and expand defense cooperation. While the three governments insist the pact is defensive and open to other states, its specifics regarding military response remain unresolved.

• Bangladesh has publicly expressed interest in joining, viewing participation positively.
• Egypt is reportedly studying the prospect of joining the agreement.
• Iran's potential membership is subject to conflicting reports, with an Iranian parliamentary official claiming an invitation was received, which the Foreign Ministry later denied.

According to Mohammad Ali Zafar, a research scholar at the University of Oxford, "The idea of a Muslim NATO-style structure under the Mecca Agreement appears to be gaining momentum among states that want to improve their security arrangements." However, Iranian researcher Ali Hosseini argues that joining would be a "profound strategic miscalculation" for Iran, as he views the pact as a containment mechanism against Iranian military power.