Why aggressors keep winning at the negotiating table
When I was a young lawyer, I learned a simple lesson about negotiations: If someone creates a problem and then demands payment to stop causing it, you are not negotiating. You are being extorted.Yet that increasingly is the model by which the West deals with terrorist organizations and rogue regimes.Consider the latest reports concerning Hamas. Nearly three years after the atrocities of Oct. 7, 2023—after the murder of civilians, the taking of hostages and a devastating war that has brought untold suffering to Israelis and Palestinians alike—Hamas reportedly insists that it will not disarm before Israel withdraws from the Gaza Strip.Pause and consider that proposition.The organization that launched the war is now demanding guarantees before surrendering the weapons that made the war possible.Iran employs a remarkably similar strategy. It threatens international shipping, sponsors proxy attacks throughout the Middle East, menaces its neighbors and periodically raises fears about freedom of navigation…
The JNS article argues that aggressors like Hamas and Iran consistently gain leverage at the negotiating table because democratic societies mistake extortion for negotiation. These entities initiate crises, then demand concessions to cease their aggression, exploiting the West's desire for stability. For example, Hamas reportedly insists on not disarming until Israel withdraws from Gaza, despite launching the October 7 attacks. Similarly, Iran threatens international shipping and sponsors proxy attacks, then expects incentives to reduce its self-initiated aggression. The author states, "The organization that launched the war is now demanding guarantees before surrendering the weapons that made the war possible." This pattern, also seen with Russia, China, and North Korea, rewards crisis creation, making it a rational strategy for aggressors. The article concludes that diplomacy must be backed by consequences, ensuring no benefits are given for merely suspending aggressive behavior.
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