Why Iran’s threat keeps haunting the Middle East – and how to finally break the cycle – opinion

For nearly 50 years, the world has focused on containing or changing Iran's theocratic regime, yet the Iranian threat consistently re-emerges. The article argues that this is because international efforts have targeted capabilities like nuclear programs and missile stockpiles, which can be rebuilt, rather than the underlying centralized state structure that enables their regeneration. Even regime change might only offer a partial fix if the administration of power remains untouched, as national interests and latent capabilities would likely persist. The author proposes that a durable solution requires internal reform within Iran, specifically broad decentralization or federalism, to curb the central government's monopoly on wealth and decisions. This approach, combined with capping offensive capabilities, upholding regional deterrence, and linking economic integration to revised conduct, aims to prevent the convergence of unchecked central power and expansionist ideology. The goal is not to permanently weaken Iran, but to transform its strength into a force bounded by institutions and societal interests, thereby ending the cycle of "buildup, strike, and resurgence."