Why Pickaxe Mountain could become Iran’s next nuclear flashpoint – analysis

US President Donald Trump's recent statements about Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear facility have sparked debate regarding its operational status and potential for a strike. While Trump publicly threatened to "take out Pickaxe Mountain," he also stated, "We see no activity there." This aligns with previous assessments from top US and Israeli defense sources, who indicated no current threat from the site and that its destruction would primarily address a future concern. These views contradict recent reports from The Wall Street Journal and CNN, which claimed Israeli intelligence informed the US that Iran had moved thousands of centrifuges and enriched uranium to Pickaxe Mountain.

• A key reason for not striking the facility earlier is the lesson from the Fordow nuclear facility, where Iran demonstrated the ability to dig deeper than even American bunker busters could reach.
• Pickaxe Mountain is reportedly built even deeper than Fordow, raising concerns about the viability of destroying it from the air.
• Despite these challenges, some US and Israeli officials view Pickaxe Mountain as a significant future concern if it becomes operational and critical nuclear assets are moved there, potentially creating a "zone of immunity."
• A potential strike, even if not fully destructive, could aim to damage the facility and disrupt operations, possibly as a strategic move to gain Iran's attention without escalating to a full-scale war.