Will Israel Elect Netanyahu Again?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a challenging re-election bid by October 27, 2024, following the October 2023 Hamas attacks and subsequent conflicts. His political standing has been weakened by an inconclusive war with Iran, a failure to decisively defeat Hamas and Hezbollah, and strained relations with the United States. Key issues for voters include his inability to deliver promised military victories and security, ongoing corruption charges, and his previous attempts to weaken Israel’s Supreme Court. Additionally, his reliance on ultra-Orthodox voters and health concerns are factors.

• The opposition, including former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid, and new party leader Gadi Eisenkot, could potentially form a government if they unite, but internal leadership ambitions may create an opening for Netanyahu to form a coalition, possibly with Benny Gantz.
• Economically, Israel remains robust with a strong tech sector and low unemployment, partly due to wartime production.
• An opposition victory might improve relations with Europe, potentially reducing sanction risks, and could slow the exodus of liberal Israelis.
• Regarding foreign policy, any Israeli government would likely continue efforts to disarm Hezbollah and maintain a strong stance on security, though a Netanyahu loss could make West Bank annexation less likely.
• The most significant difference an opposition win would bring is a less aggressive approach towards Iran compared to Netanyahu, focusing on repairing U.S. relations and preparing for future conflicts rather than escalating current ones.