Cohen, Levin, Ohana and Regev top Likud primary, with over 60% of vote counted

Energy Minister Eli Cohen was poised to win first place in the Likud party primary after operatives from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s finished counting over half of the vote before dawn on Tuesday.

Cohen was trailed by Justice Minister Yariv Levin, Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, Transportation Minister Miri Regev and coalition whip Ofir Katz.

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After ballots from 302 of 501 total polling stations across the country were counted, the results were as follows:

1. Eli Cohen
2. Yariv Levin
3. Amir Ohana
4. Miri Regev
5. Ofir Katz
6. Yoav Kisch
7. Miki Zohar
8. Almog Cohen
9. Amichai Chikli
10. David Amsalem
11. Moshe Saada
12. David Bitan
13. Tally Gotliv
14. Shlomo Karhi
15. Nir Barkat
16. Boaz Bismuth

Given that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has consistently been polling in the low 20s, and given that roughly one-third of the first 30 slots on the Likud list are reserved for candidates hand-picked by the premier, those who do not finish in the top 16 in the Likud primary are not expected to make it into the next Knesset.

If the current results hold, that would mean current ministers Ze’ev Elkin, Gila Gamliel, May Golan, Idit Silman and Avi Dichter will be out of a job come October, along with current Likud MKs Hanoch Milwidsky, Keti Shitrit, Ariel Kallner, Amit Halevi and Nissim Vaturi.

Polls closed in the Likud primary election after eleven hours of voting on Monday night, with 53.5 percent of the party’s roughly 140,000 members having cast ballots, according to a party spokesman.

The turnout marked a decrease in voter participation since the last Likud primary in 2022, when close to 58% of members voted.

In the hours before voting ended, Likud ministers and MKs gathered at their respective voting centers across Israel to make a last-minute appeal to voters.

One of the few parties to determine its electoral lineup through a primary, Likud has long prided itself on its internal democratic process. However, changes to the system this year have shrunk the number of open spots on the roster, after Netanyahu was granted the ability to handpick eight candidates in the top 30 spots, and another reserved slot was allocated to Defense Minister Israel Katz.

That Likud is slated to win significantly fewer seats than it currently holds has further tightened the race.

Opinion polls have suggested that Netanyahu’s party will win between 22 and 24 mandates, meaning that many of the 32 Likud lawmakers currently serving in the Knesset are likely to lose their seats.

Both these factors combined meant that a host of veteran lawmakers and newcomers alike were competing for a drastically reduced number of realistic slots on the list.

Apart from his own slot atop the slate, which was not up for grabs in Monday’s vote, Netanyahu controls the 3rd, 5th, 9th, 11th, 15th, 18th, 26th and 29th slots on the list. So far, he has tapped Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar, Likud Central Committee chair Haim Katz, and political newcomer Oren Dobronsky to fill three of these eight slots, although he hasn’t clarified their exact placements.

According to Hebrew media reports, the premier’s push for reserved slots was based on concerns that the primary could elevate candidates who are highly popular among the Likud base — including firebrand Likud MK Tally Gotliv and ministers Shlomo Karhi and May Golan — but who internal party polling suggests are less appealing to moderate right-wing and swing voters whose support could prove decisive in the upcoming national election. It was also reportedly motivated by Netanyahu’s desire to settle scores with internal critics such as Economy Minister Nir Barkat.

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