Israel, Turkey maneuver toward potential clash over influence in Syria – analysis

Israel and Turkey are on a potential collision course over influence in Syria, with Israeli officials anticipating a future clash. Following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024, Israel extended its policy of airstrikes and established a buffer zone along the border, while also backing the Druze minority in southern Syria. This has led to an open-ended policy that could involve Turkey.

• Turkey, a major supporter of the new Syrian government led by Ahmed al-Shara'a, has shifted its focus from fighting Kurdish forces to collaborating with Damascus, a move also embraced by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
• Israel's Prime Minister's Office stated that Syria nearly breached a "status quo" by permitting Turkish troops at an airbase near Aleppo, warning that "Israel repeatedly warned Syria that such a deployment would pose a threat to Israel's security."
• Israel's Chief of the General Staff emphasized, "We will not allow hostile forces to establish themselves on our borders, and we will know how to use our operational capabilities precisely where and when needed."
• The US, while seeking stability in Syria and having opposed past Israeli strikes, is juggling multiple regional issues, leaving room for tensions to escalate between Israel and Turkey.