The illusion of peace with Tehran
The United States once again appears to face a choice it has postponed for decades: negotiate with the Islamic regime or accept that lasting change in Iran ultimately requires regime change.U.S. Vice President JD Vance has himself acknowledged that negotiations with Tehran are proceeding with difficulty and has also warned that some hardliners within the regime prefer war to an agreement.Washington has also underestimated the means Tehran still has at its disposal. The Strait of Hormuz has once again demonstrated the extent of Iran’s strategic leverage. With relatively limited military means, the regime can exert enormous economic and geopolitical pressure through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran itself also appears to have fully discovered only during this confrontation just how much influence it can wield through this position.But perhaps the greatest miscalculation is the assumption that military pressure automatically creates the conditions for regime change. A government in Tehran can ultimately…
The article discusses the ongoing challenges in U.S. negotiations with Iran, suggesting that a lasting solution may require regime change rather than diplomatic agreements. U.S. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged difficulties in talks and warned that some hardliners prefer war. The piece highlights Iran's strategic leverage through the Strait of Hormuz, which allows it to exert significant economic and geopolitical pressure. However, it cautions against assuming military pressure alone will lead to regime change, emphasizing that a revolution requires the Iranian people to rise up and gain access to means of resistance, coupled with security forces refusing to act against them. The article notes that the current regime has a strong repressive apparatus, unlike the situation in 1979. It concludes that an agreement risks being merely a "diplomatic victory for appearances’ sake" if the repressive system remains in power, urging Washington to choose between continued negotiations with an unpredictable regime or recognizing that stability through an agreement is an illusion.
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