US or Iran — Who needs a new truce deal more?

The US and Iran are in an escalating cycle of attacks, with both sides declaring their June ceasefire memorandum of understanding no longer in force, though expressing readiness for diplomacy. Pakistan, a key mediator, urged an end to violence and a return to talks, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi stating, “there is no alternative to sustained engagement, dialogue and diplomacy.”

US President Donald Trump claims Iran is “desperate” for a deal, while Iranian lead negotiator Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran was “in an existential war with America.”

Both nations face significant pressures: Iran's economy is severely stressed by sanctions and its military infrastructure has been damaged, with 30% of its missile stockpile and 60% of its drone arsenal depleted by April 1. The US faces surging oil prices, an unpopular war ahead of midterm elections, and dwindling stockpiles of expensive munitions, with 14 soldiers killed and 414 wounded. Despite these challenges, analysts suggest Iran views this as an existential conflict and is unlikely to compromise, while US concerns about weapon shortages are also tied to potential future conflicts with other major powers.