Iran’s Strait of Hormuz trump card is losing strategic value, expert tells 'Post' – interview

According to Thomas O'Donnell, an American energy and geopolitics strategist, Iran's strategic leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is diminishing. This is due to several factors, including the availability of alternative oil supplies from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Western Hemisphere sources, as well as the release of strategic petroleum reserves. Additionally, planned pipelines in the UAE and Iraq will further reduce reliance on the strait. O'Donnell notes that Iran's ability to control the waterway has also degraded, with US actions systematically weakening its defenses. He states, "There's more production in other places, but [the disruption of] oil has not been anything like it would have been 20 years ago if they closed the strait." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts the strait will become "just another body of water" within two years, with 50-70% of exports rerouted. This weakening position may compel Iran to negotiate a deal with the US, despite potential desperate attempts to increase pressure on Gulf states.