Narratives of an Israel-Iran nuclear confrontation

This article discusses the persistent risks of an Israel-Iran nuclear confrontation, even if Iran does not develop full nuclear weapons. The author, Professor Louis René Beres, argues that Israel will need to update its “ambiguous” nuclear posture, moving from a “bomb in the basement” strategy to “selective nuclear disclosure” to maintain credible deterrence against Iran and other adversaries. The article highlights that Iran already possesses radiation dispersal weapons and other capabilities that could threaten Israel’s Dimona reactor, potentially leading to an “asymmetrical nuclear war.”

• Nuclear Retaliation: Israel could respond with limited nuclear retaliation to a massive conventional attack or WMD strike from a non-nuclear Iran.
• Nuclear Counter-retaliation: If Israel preempts Iranian nuclear options with conventional weapons, and Iran retaliates with radiological or other WMDs, Israel might escalate to nuclear counter-retaliation.
• Nuclear Preemption: A preemptive Israeli nuclear strike is highly unlikely but could be plausible if Iran acquires authentic nuclear weapons, clarifies hostile intentions, is ready to launch, and conventional preemption is insufficient for Israel’s survival.
• Nuclear Warfighting: If nuclear weapons are introduced, warfighting would ensue, provided neither side’s second-strike or counter-retaliatory capabilities are destroyed.

The article emphasizes that Israel’s nuclear weapons and deterrence are essential for its national survival, and strategic planners must consider various scenarios and avoid ad hoc calculations.